LinesWatch Sector Review, September 1 – 4, 2025
Politics and Policy: Friction at the Top
Former Kaduna State governor, Nasir El-Rufai, set the tone with a fiery critique of President Bola Tinubu’s agricultural policies, describing them as “stupid” and blaming them for plunging 30 million Nigerians into poverty. His comments echo growing discontent over persistent food inflation and collapsing productivity.
“30 million Nigerians have fallen into poverty under Tinubu’s policies.” – El-Rufai
Meanwhile, the Federal Government is pressing ahead: launching plans to label genetically modified crops, rolling out land-use frameworks (FRILIA in Yobe), and pushing a new national agricultural gender plan.
But farmers’ umbrella body, AFAN, has warned that unless insecurity and soaring input costs are tackled urgently, food systems could slide deeper into crisis.
By the Numbers: Agriculture in Focus
- ₦3.5 trillion – annual loss to post-harvest waste
- 22.75% – rise in bank lending to agriculture (₦3.17 trillion in Q1 2025)
- 354,000 tonnes – wheat imports lost after Russia slashed exports
Rice, Shea, and the Battle for Staple Crops
Rice debates dominated headlines. A Vanguard analysis revealed how Buhari’s ₦1 trillion Anchor Borrowers Programme failed to deliver food self-sufficiency.
Yet a ray of hope emerged: the Crop Trust–AfricaRice pact, which will conserve rice diversity for 35 million farmers.
Elsewhere, Tinubu’s six-month ban on raw shea exports split opinions. Industry stakeholders hailed it as a step toward industrialisation, while cashew farmers warned that such sudden bans could cripple value chains.
Quick Facts
- ₦1 trillion sunk into Anchor Borrowers Programme
- 35 million farmers to benefit from AfricaRice conservation pact
- $6.5 billion global shea market Nigeria is targeting
Finance and Trade: Big Money, Big Gaps
Signs of optimism emerged in financing. The CBN reported agricultural lending rose to ₦3.17 trillion in Q1 2025 — up 22.75%.
At the same time:
- British International Investment (BII) committed $7.5m to Babban Gona (supporting 140,000 farmers).
- Greenus Capital raised $23m for Johnvents Industries.
- FirstBank unveiled plans for its flagship Agric and Export Conference.
But shocks continue: Russia slashed wheat exports by 354,000 tonnes, hitting bread supply. Nigeria also risks being sidelined from the $38 billion global coconut market due to poor-quality seedlings.
Cautionary Note
“Nigeria loses ₦3.5 trillion annually to post-harvest waste.” – Africa Food Systems Forum
States in Motion: From Kwara to Katsina
State governments are increasingly taking the lead:
- Kwara distributed 14,180 seedlings to schools and expanded mechanisation.
- Enugu empowered 60,000 farmers with input support.
- Akwa Ibom earmarked ₦31 billion for palm plantations in 2026.
- Katsina secured a $700m pledge from Chinese firms for agro-renewables.
But challenges remain. The North-East Governors Forum has warned of food shortages by 2026 unless subsidies are restored.
Innovation & Inclusion
Innovation is reshaping agribusiness:
- Ezekiel Olajumoke is turning snail shells into organic pest control.
- In Osun, a cassava enterprise project backed by BATNF is lifting smallholder incomes.
- In Adamawa, climate-smart mechanisation is empowering women farmers.
- National policies are now engaging youth and people with disabilities.
“Empowering women and youth in agriculture is not charity; it’s smart economics.” – FAO Nigeria
The Bigger Picture
Across board, one message stands tall: agriculture remains Nigeria’s most strategic route out of poverty, inflation, and oil dependence.
“Nigeria cannot afford to rely on crude oil; agriculture is the pathway to diversification and growth.” – Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry
Yet beneath the optimism lie fragilities: inconsistent policies, abrupt export bans, weak seed systems, and fragile value chains. Unless addressed, Nigeria’s food security will remain hostage to both global shocks and domestic inefficiencies.
Bottom Line
September opened with both a warning and a window of opportunity. If Nigeria harnesses investment, enforces transparent policies, and empowers farmers, agriculture could yet become the engine of prosperity. But policy missteps — from sudden export bans to poor seed supply — risk dragging the sector deeper into crisis.