Trump’s new protectionist policy, BRICS concerns shake US–Nigeria trade dynamics
By Moses Adeniyi
LAGOS, NIGERIA — Trade between Nigeria and the United States has taken a sharp turn in 2025, as fresh figures reveal a $527 million drop in Nigerian exports to the US within the first five months of the year.
The decline, a nearly 20 per cent year-on-year fall, coincides with escalating trade tensions and the introduction of higher US tariffs under President Donald Trump’s second-term economic agenda.
According to data from the US Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, US imports of Nigerian goods fell from $2.65 billion between January and May 2024 to $2.12 billion in the same period of 2025. This reversal comes just two months after Trump signed an executive order on April 2, 2025, introducing a broad 10 per cent tariff on imports, with Nigeria singled out for a steeper 14 per cent levy due to its past trade surplus.
Although energy-related imports, including crude oil — Nigeria’s top export — were exempt from the tariffs, the overall export dip suggests a broader cooling of US demand for Nigerian goods. Analysts note that the impact goes beyond tariffs, touching on deeper shifts in US procurement patterns, global trade alliances, and Nigeria’s limited export diversification.
Crude Still Leads, Shows Signs of Weakening
Nigeria’s crude oil exports — historically the backbone of US–Nigeria trade — showed weakness. Between January and May 2025, the US imported 17.39 million barrels of Nigerian crude oil valued at $1.34 billion (customs value), compared to 20.4 million barrels worth $1.52 billion in the same period of 2024.
Despite the drop, Nigeria remains the largest African supplier of crude to the US, with over 62 per cent of total US crude imports from Africa coming from Nigeria. In May 2025 alone, Nigerian oil exports to the US stood at 4.2 million barrels worth $311 million, down from $368 million in April.
The decline appears tied to shifting US energy sourcing strategies, including increased reliance on domestic production and diversification away from traditional suppliers. While exempt from tariffs, Nigerian oil is not immune to changing demand and competition from other global producers.
Non-Oil Exports Hit Hard
The data reveal a particularly steep drop in non-oil exports, including agricultural and manufactured products, which have struggled under the weight of tariff uncertainty and weak local industrial output. Nigerian exports to the US in May 2025 dropped to $400 million, down from $517 million in May 2024 — a clear sign of strain beyond the energy sector.
Observers say the inability of Nigeria to diversify its export base is now becoming a strategic liability. Structural challenges — such as poor infrastructure, port congestion, policy instability, and low manufacturing competitiveness — continue to hinder growth in non-oil trade.
US Exports to Nigeria Surge, Trade Balance Reverses
While Nigerian exports to the US fell, American exports to Nigeria rose sharply. In the first five months of 2025, the US exported $2.42 billion worth of goods to Nigeria — a 17.8 per cent increase from $2.05 billion in the same period of 2024.
This shift has led to a reversal in the trade balance. In the first five months of 2024, the US had a $596 million trade deficit with Nigeria. By May 2025, the tables had turned — the US recorded a $295 million surplus. In May alone, the US exported $515 million in goods to Nigeria but imported just $400 million, creating a monthly surplus of $115 million.
One area driving US export growth is the automotive sector. Between January and May 2025, Nigeria imported $426 million worth of motor vehicles and parts from the US, including $312 million in passenger cars, $29 million in trucks and buses, and $86 million in spare parts. In May, motor vehicle exports alone stood at $95 million.
Nigeria’s Regional Standing Under Pressure
Nigeria’s position as a top-tier US trade partner in Africa is also slipping. It now accounts for about 10.8 per cent of US imports from Africa and 14.8 per cent of US exports to the continent — both slightly down from the previous year.
Meanwhile, other African nations are gaining ground. Egypt has emerged as the largest African destination for US exports, receiving $3.43 billion worth of goods from the US in the first five months of 2025 — a dramatic rise from $1.95 billion in 2024. South Africa dominates US imports from Africa, with $8.67 billion in goods exported to the US during the same period, far outpacing Nigeria.
Nigeria’s total trade volume with the US for January to May 2025 now stands at $4.54 billion, lagging behind both Egypt and South Africa, signalling a need for policy recalibration.
BRICS Factor, Rising Global Trade Tensions
Another key development complicating the trade outlook is Nigeria’s growing economic alignment with BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). While Nigeria is not a formal BRICS member, its rising trade volumes with the bloc — N5.41 trillion in Q1 2025, more than triple US-bound exports — have drawn attention from Washington.
In response, the Trump administration has threatened an additional 10 per cent tariff on nations aligning with BRICS, potentially raising Nigeria’s total US-bound tariff exposure to 24 per cent.
Experts have said such policy threats may harm Nigeria’s private sector as businesses may face increased costs and supply chain disruptions, especially for imported raw materials and technology.
This, however, experts have noted that this shift creates opportunities for Nigeria to strengthen regional trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
Outlook: A Moment for Strategic Realignment
Despite remaining a dominant energy exporter to the US, Nigeria is losing ground in broader trade terms. The sharp fall in exports, combined with a growing US surplus, underscores the vulnerability of Nigeria’s commodity-dependent trade model in a shifting global landscape.
Some government stakeholders have clarified that Nigeria’s relationship with BRICS is ideological and strategic but does not amount to formal membership.
Still, as geopolitical blocs and trade alliances evolve, Nigeria faces a critical juncture. Its next moves — whether towards regional integration, domestic industrial development, or new global alliances — will determine how it navigates an increasingly fractured and protectionist world economy.