Moses Adeniyi
Nigeria’s fragile political balance came under renewed scrutiny this week as influential northern stakeholders convened in Kaduna to assess President Bola Tinubu’s midterm performance and weigh in on the future of the country’s power rotation arrangement.
The high-level engagement, hosted by the Sir Ahmadu Bello Memorial Foundation at the historic Arewa House, brought together northern politicians, traditional rulers, technocrats, civil society leaders, and top federal officials. Themed “Assessing Electoral Promises: Fostering Government-Citizen Engagement for National Unity,” the forum marked a politically charged moment as discussions around 2027 and regional power dynamics resurfaced with new urgency.
Representing the President, Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Senator George Akume, used the platform to issue a clear warning to political actors from the North eyeing the 2027 presidency: power should remain in the South until 2031.
“In 1999, northern patriots agreed that power rotation is key to peace and national cohesion. Based on that understanding, the North will be eligible again in 2031,” Akume declared.
While touting the achievements of the Tinubu administration under the Renewed Hope Agenda, Akume urged patience, invoking past sacrifices made by northern leaders to stabilise the nation through rotational power-sharing.
Mixed Reactions: Consensus or Contention?
Akume’s remarks drew strong reactions from across Nigeria’s political and ideological spectrum.
The Middle Belt Forum (MBF) backed the SGF’s position, describing it as consistent with the principles of rotational governance that, though unwritten, have held Nigeria’s political fabric together since 1999.
“The North should wait till 2031. Such informal agreements are critical in a plural society like ours,” said MBF President Bitrus Pogu, though he lamented that ethnic loyalties continue to dominate governance at the expense of national interest.
Afenifere, the pan-Yoruba socio-political group, also supported Akume’s stance. Its organising secretary, Kole Omololu, hailed the speech as a stabilising intervention:
“The SGF’s message reflects political maturity and patriotism. Power rotation is not just about equity; it’s about cohesion and preventing political instability.”
Afenifere also praised key infrastructural projects in the North—including refinery rehabilitation and railway expansion—highlighting them as proof that the South-led administration is committed to national development.
Critics Hit Back: “No Moral High Ground”
However, opposition parties and northern critics slammed Akume’s remarks, calling them selective and hypocritical.
Labour Party (LP) and the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) argued that the concept of zoning has already been undermined—primarily by the All Progressives Congress (APC)—when it fielded a controversial Muslim-Muslim ticket in 2023.
“You can’t call for zoning now when you ignored religious balancing just last year,” said NNPP spokesperson Ladipo Johnson. “You can’t cherry-pick which conventions to honour.”
LP Deputy Chairman Dr Ayo Olorunfemi further pushed back, stating:
“Rotation is less important than competence. Nigerians want solutions, not slogans.”
Former SGF Babachir Lawal, a fierce Tinubu critic, went further, branding Akume’s position as “mockery” and questioning the logic of waiting until 2031 in the face of underperformance.
“If the APC broke the tradition with a same-faith ticket, why now insist on zoning? Let competent Nigerians, North or South, contest freely,” Lawal fumed.
Kwankwaso’s Allegations and the Growing Rift
Fuel was added to the fire by former Kano State Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, who accused the Tinubu administration of favouring the South in project distribution—particularly with regards to federal infrastructure.
The Presidency, however, quickly debunked the claims, releasing data that suggested more federal spending is currently flowing to northern states.
APC chieftain Yekini Nabena joined the fray, accusing Kwankwaso of “playing the ethnic card” and attempting to incite northern voters ahead of 2027.
“The North just completed eight years in power. What exactly is being shortchanged now?” Nabena queried. “You cannot intimidate the South or anybody with Kano votes anymore.”
The Bigger Picture: A Delicate Political Balancing Act
At the heart of this intensifying debate is the fragility of Nigeria’s unspoken political agreements. Since 1999, an informal North-South rotational presidency has helped maintain a semblance of equity in a deeply divided federation. But recent political shifts—especially the rejection of a religious balancing formula in the 2023 election—may have set dangerous precedents.
The question heading into 2027 is whether political actors will prioritise regional claims or national unity, historical conventions or democratic openness, competence or representation.
The Kaduna parley, though framed as a policy and performance review, has laid bare a simmering political undercurrent that could define the next presidential race—and the trajectory of Nigeria’s democratic experiment.
As the 2027 race quietly begins to take shape, all eyes will be on whether Tinubu can bridge the growing regional divides and deliver enough progress to make a second term a politically tenable—and nationally acceptable—reality.