Our Correspondent | Business
Nigeria’s economy strengthened in the third quarter of 2025, recording a real GDP growth of 3.98 per cent, up from 3.86 per cent in the corresponding period of 2024, according to new data released on Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The performance reflects a cautiously improving macroeconomic environment, supported by stronger agricultural output, steady expansion in ICT, and a surge in financial services.
The NBS report shows that real GDP rose to ₦57.03 trillion, compared with ₦54.85 trillion a year earlier. In nominal terms, the economy expanded by 18.12 per cent year-on-year to ₦113.59 trillion, underscoring both improved activity and persistent price pressures.
Services Remain Dominant, Agriculture Strengthens
The services sector retained its position as the largest contributor to the economy, accounting for 53.02 per cent of real GDP. Agriculture followed with 31.21 per cent, buoyed largely by crop production, which continues to anchor rural incomes despite climate-related challenges and high input costs.
Industry posted a mild rebound, with oil and non-oil activities jointly supporting overall momentum.
Oil Sector Sees Moderate Improvement
The oil sector recorded 5.84 per cent real growth, slightly above the 5.66 per cent posted in Q3 2024. Average crude oil production climbed to 1.64 million barrels per day, compared with 1.47 million bpd a year earlier. Despite a quarter-on-quarter contraction of 5.53 per cent, oil’s share of GDP edged up to 3.44 per cent, reflecting better output stability and improved compliance with production targets.
Non-Oil Sector Drives Broader Recovery
The non-oil economy expanded by 3.91 per cent, outpacing its performance in both Q3 2024 (3.79 per cent) and Q2 2025 (3.64 per cent). Key highlights include:
- Agriculture: 3.79% real growth, led by crop production
- Manufacturing: Slowed to 1.25%, reflecting continued cost pressures
- Construction: 5.57% growth, slightly weaker than 2024 figures
- Trade: 1.98% growth, accounting for 16.42% of GDP
- ICT: Strong performance with 5.78% growth and a 9.10% GDP share
- Financial & Insurance Services: A standout at 19.63% real growth, though with a modest GDP contribution of 2.65%
- Education & Health: Posted moderate growth of 2.51% and 2.89%, respectively
The Statistician-General, Prince Adeyemi Adeniran, noted that the new quarterly figures reflect the robustness of Nigeria’s rebased national accounts, incorporating improvements in data quality and sectoral coverage.
In October, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) upgraded Nigeria’s 2025 growth forecast to 3.9 per cent, citing rising oil output, renewed investor confidence, and supportive fiscal measures. The Fund also revised its 2026 outlook to 4.2 per cent, projecting a stronger medium-term recovery if reforms remain on course.
While growth remains uneven across sectors — with manufacturing still constrained and consumer demand yet to fully rebound — stronger performances in ICT, agriculture, trade and finance have provided critical support. Economic analysts note that sustaining reforms, stabilising prices, and improving security will be key to unlocking higher and more inclusive growth as the country heads into 2026.