Sector Review: LinesWatch – August 29 – September 01, 2025.
Over the past weekend, the Nigerian agricultural sector once again found itself in the eye of national debate, buffeted by biting criticisms, stark warnings, cautious optimism, and the relentless push for innovation. From fiery political accusations and grim production forecasts to small-scale innovations and international partnerships, the news cycle revealed a sector grappling with crisis but still brimming with untapped potential.
Policy and Politics: Agriculture as a Battlefield
Former Kaduna governor, Nasir El-Rufai, did not mince words in his assault on President Bola Tinubu’s administration, declaring that “stupid policies” had driven 30 million Nigerians into poverty while “destroying agriculture.” His comments struck at the heart of public discontent, particularly as food inflation continues to bite and productivity stagnates.
The critique comes against the backdrop of damning reports on the Anchor Borrowers Programme (ABP), which saw over ₦1 trillion allegedly wasted with no significant improvement in staple crops such as rice and cotton. The memory of the much-touted rice pyramids—once paraded as symbols of self-sufficiency—now stands as an indictment of failed agricultural grandstanding.
Food Security on the Brink
The North-East Governors’ Forum (NEGF) issued a stark communiqué warning of a possible food crisis by 2026, citing soaring input costs and fragile rural economies. Their alarm echoed similar calls from the All Farmers Association of Nigeria (AFAN), which urged urgent government intervention to stem deepening insecurity, rising costs, and climate change-induced risks.
These warnings sit uneasily beside the federal government’s latest regulatory move: a plan to label genetically modified crops (GMOs) for transparency and accountability. While the initiative may boost consumer confidence, sceptics argue that regulatory moves without resolving deeper structural challenges—land tenure, financing, insecurity, and logistics—risk becoming cosmetic gestures.
Smallholders, Snails, and Seeds of Innovation
Beyond high politics, stories of resilience dotted the landscape. A spotlight on agripreneur Ezekiel Olajumoke, who is transforming snail shells into organic pest control solutions, underlined the quiet but important role of grassroots innovators in shaping Nigeria’s agro-future. Similarly, youth-focused initiatives and climate-smart interventions—such as Mercy Corps’ support for ginger farmers and MyAgroPadi’s grassroots training in Delta—signalled a bottom-up surge in creativity.
Meanwhile, 35 million African rice farmers, including many Nigerians, stand to benefit from a landmark deal between the Crop Trust and AfricaRice, safeguarding rice diversity across the continent. This long-term investment contrasts sharply with Nigeria’s short-term struggles to stabilise rice production and input supply.
International Currents and Export Markets
Global dynamics are reshaping Nigeria’s food security. Russia has slashed wheat exports to Nigeria, with volumes falling from 270,000 tonnes in June 2024 to just 92,000 tonnes in June 2025. Valued at ₦69 billion, this decline underscores Nigeria’s dangerous dependence on external suppliers at a time of volatile shipping routes through the Red Sea.
At the same time, Dangote’s $2.5 billion fertiliser plant deal in Ethiopia and Nigeria’s expanding urea exports (over 863,000 tonnes valued at $363 million) highlight how Nigerian agribusiness giants are positioning for continental dominance, even as local farmers struggle with access to inputs.
Investments, Finance, and State-level Pushes
Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) revealed that banks’ lending to agriculture rose by 22.75% in Q1 2025 to ₦3.17 trillion. While this signals stronger financing, questions remain about accessibility for smallholders versus large-scale agribusinesses.
State governments continue to make varied pushes: Yobe launched its FRILIA sensitisation drive to attract sustainable land-intensive investments, while Lagos doubled down on data-driven farming and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) control. Enugu and Yobe rolled out free farm inputs and tractors, signalling that sub-national governments remain critical actors in Nigeria’s agricultural survival.
Loss and Legacy
The death of Chief Audu Ogbeh, former Minister of Agriculture, brought a pause for reflection. Remembered as both a practitioner and policymaker, Ogbeh is credited with driving the surge in rice production during Buhari’s first term through the Anchor Borrowers Scheme—an era now viewed with mixed assessments of progress and missed opportunities.
The Road Ahead: From Rhetoric to Resilience
The weekend’s headlines paint a portrait of contradiction: a sector under siege from poor policies, global supply shocks, and systemic inefficiencies, yet also alive with innovation, sub-national initiatives, and international collaborations.
Nigeria’s agriculture stands at a crossroads. Without urgent reforms that prioritise security, infrastructure, and genuine farmer support, warnings of looming shortages may become a painful reality. Yet, if grassroots innovations, bold financing, and continental partnerships are strategically harnessed, the sector could pivot from subsistence struggles to a pillar of prosperity.
For now, Nigerian agriculture remains a battlefield—between rhetoric and results, crisis and creativity.