Feature
The Stakes are quite quantifiable. Nigeria spends over $10 billion annually on food imports, covering staples such as wheat, rice, sugar, and fish—costs that swallow significant economic and calorie equity, and yet less than 0.5% of global agro-exports come from Nigeria. In Q1 2025 alone, Nigerians imported food and beverages worth ₦1.67 trillion, a 125% jump from Q1 2023. This dependency undermines food sovereignty and strains foreign reserves.
Policy Pitfalls and Political Crossfires
Despite bold declarations—like Nigeria’s refusal to bow to food import reliance—policy execution remains weak. Food imports comprised ≈17% of Nigeria’s total foreign exchange spending in Q1 2024. Meanwhile, food inflation soared to 40.5% year-on-year by April 2024, with rice prices more than doubling in some cases—jumping from ₦540 to ₦1,223 per kilogram in a year. The result? Policies meant to curb imports often exacerbate price shocks.
Farmer Resilience Amid Systemic Weakness
Yet, innovation persists. Investments like the GB Foods tomato-processing plant in Kebbi (₦20 billion) and reelFruit’s N3.8 billion dried fruit factory showcase regional agro-processing momentum. These drive down import needs—GB Foods alone offsets N16 billion in annual tomato-paste imports. Similarly, the Imota Rice Mill in Lagos—the largest in Africa—can refine 2.8 million 50-kg bags annually, supporting local rice self-reliance and employment.
Insecurity and Climate: Unyielding Headwinds
Insecurity costs agriculture dearly. In Benue State, a 1% rise in insecurity translated to a 0.21% drop in crop output and 0.31% in livestock production. Across northern Nigeria, conflicts and bandit attacks have driven farmers off their land, with some forced to pay over ₦139 million in extortion between 2020–2023. Consequently, 31.8 million Nigerians now face acute food shortages—a sharp rise from 18.6 million—driven by insecurity and swelling costs. Child malnutrition is spiralling with 31.8 million food-insecure individuals, the highest globally, and admissions to malnutrition centres have doubled.
Innovation Frontiers: Emerging Opportunities
Amid turbulence, bright spots emerge. Nigeria has begun importing high-yield dairy cattle from Denmark, aiming to double milk output from 0.7 million to 1.4 million tonnes in five years—reducing a $1.5 billion annual milk import burden.
Rice production, however, faces a 7.2% decline, slipping from 8.3 to approximately 7.7 million metric tonnes in 2024–25. Consumption is also forecast to fall, driven by 35% year-over-year food-price inflation.
On the cost-of-living front, a standard pot of Jollof rice for a family of six is valued to average ₦20,000 a 153% hike since March 2023—and equates to some 26.67% of the new minimum wage.
The Way Forward: Shifting from Crisis to Creativity
The crossroads is clear:
- Policy coherence and financing reform: Innovative instruments—revenue-sharing, pay-as-you-harvest, equity models—are needed to align finance with reality.
- Security interventions: Deployment of targeted local security, surveillance, and legal enforcement to protect farmers and restore cultivation.
- Scaling agro-processing infrastructure: Building on success of Imota mill, GB Foods, and others to curb import dependence and foster value addition.
- Adaptive innovation: Foster climate-smart approaches, vetting seed variety dissemination, and agri-tech links to markets.
- Inclusive financing: Extend flexible credit to smallholders, women, and youth to sustain agricultural momentum.
Choosing the Harvest
Nigeria’s agriculture is not inescapably doomed to imports, inflation, and insecurity. Its ingenuity—seen in agro-processing, livestock breeding, and grassroots resilience—offers threads of transformation. But without stable policy, protected farmlands, and scalable innovation, these threads may unravel into further fragility.
For sector stakeholders, the imperative is simple: harvest transformation, not uncertainty.